2014 ,№1

Prediction of banking crisis in developed countries based on «Classification tree» construction

Abstract:

This paper proposes an approach to the prediction of banking crises, based on the method of Binary Classification Tree (BCT). Binary tree was constructed and thresholds occurrence of banking crises were defined for a sample of developed countries on the basis of this approach. We also found that identified thresholds indicators are statistically significant for predicting banking crises.

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Oleg S. Mariev –  Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin, Head of the Department of Econometrics and Statistics (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: olegmariev@mail.ru).

Andrey A. Trofimov – Graduate student, Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B. N. Yeltsin (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation;  e-mail: trofimov_aa@mail.ru).