2012 № 4

The new view on rationality: from rational expectations to the expectations rationality


The awarding of Nobel prize in economics to T. Sargent and K. Sims in 2011 for empirical research of reasons and expectations in the macroeconomy again showed the expectations subject actuality in macroeconomic analysis. There are two modeling methods in the actual macroanalysis — vectorial autoregressions (VAR) and structural macroeconomic estimations. K. Sims is the author of the first method, the development of the second method relates to the name of T. Sargent. Rational expectations and Phillips-Phelps curve have an important role in frames of structural macroeconomic estimations method. The aim of this article is the description of the rational expectations conception development in the economic theory — from J. Muth research till E. Phelps works; and also the presentation of the expectations rationality role increase in the macroeconomic regulation in the present moment.

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Svetlana U. Filina  – Graduate student,  Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: Svetlana.filina@hotmail.com).