2015 ,№1

Structural modeling of economic growth: technological change

20.03.201520 октября, 2023Без комментариев


Neoclassical and Keynesian theory of economic growth suggest the use of modified Cobb-Douglas functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to modeling the growth dynamics. Explanations of economic growth in this case attached to the logic used in mathematical relationships, often consisting of a priori ideas about changing the aggregated values and changing factors. The idea of evaluation factor productivity is a fundamentally in the framework of modern theories of economic growth. However, the structural parameters of the economic system, institutions, and technological changes, although the latter are reflected in the changing parameters of the production function, however, is practically not taken into account in the framework of known approaches. At the same time, the ratio of structural elements on the one hand determines the future value of TFP, on the other hand, strongly affects the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovation dynamics. Enter the structural parameters of the economic system in a model of growth with the possibility of evaluation of such regimes in terms of interaction of new and old combinations represented a significant step in the development of the theory of economic growth / development. This allows you to create policies to stimulate economic growth on the basis of structural relations and connections identified for the economic system. Most convenient for capturing such models use logistic functions, representing the change of the resource for the old and new combinations in the framework of the economic system. Result of the development of the economy depends on the initial conditions, as well as institutional settings change speeds borrowing resources in favor of the creation of new combinations and under it the resource. Model design resource is carried out through the idea of investing in a combination of new and old.

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Oleg S. Sukharev — Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Head of the Sector for Institutional Analysis of Economic Dynamics, Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russian Federation; e-mail: o_sukharev@list.ru).