For citation:
Didenko, D. V. (2024). Russia’s Transition to a “Modern” Economic Growth Regime: Revisiting Modernization Concepts. AlterEconomics, 21(4), 797–817. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2024.21-4.8
Abstract:
An important challenge in economics is explaining the factors that drive transformation processes in economic systems, often resulting in complex and contradictory structural changes. One notable historical example is the late Russian Empire’s transition from a Malthusian regime to a “modern” regime of economic growth in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. This article explores theoretical and methodological approaches from recent economic history literature concerning Russia’s role in modernization and catch-up development. By employing tools from economics and related social sciences, such as sociology and demography, the study analyzes empirical evidence grounded in quantitative data. The study contributes to economic theory by reevaluating the modernization paradigm and the “modern regime of economic growth.” It reinterprets A. Gerschenkron’s concept of economic development in “backward” countries, highlighting the role of human capital accumulation, challenging linear and pessimistic views of material well-being, and emphasizing the significance of non-material aspects in well-being dynamics. Drawing on Russian evidence, the study also partially confirms models in unified growth theory, such as the relationship between human capital accumulation and the demographic transition, where the former is shown to have preceded the latter. Additionally, the analysis identifies a bell-shaped pattern in economic inequality dynamics: S. Kuznets’ cyclical model of individual income inequality and J. Williamson’s observation that the downward phase of spatial inequality in Russia began earlier than in reference countries due to the growing role of central government investment in education. The article concludes by identifying promising directions for future research, particularly concerning the “Great Divergence” and the long-term dynamics of productivity and well-being gaps between Western Europe and East Asia.
A’Hearn, B., Baten, J., & Crayen, D. (2009). Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the History of Human Capital. The Journal of Economic History, 69 (3), 783−808. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050709001120
Ajus, F., & Lindgren, M. (2015). Children per woman. Version 6. The Gapminder Foundation. https://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd008/ (Date of access: 11.06.2024).
Alekseev, V. V. (2004). Obshchestvennyy potentsial istorii [Social Potential of History]. Ekaterinburg: Ural Institute of Humanities Publ., 642. (In Russ.)
Allen, R. C. (2001). The great divergence in European wages and prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War. Explorations in Economic History, 38 (4), 411–447. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/exeh.2001.0775
Allen, R. C. (2012). Technology and the great divergence: Global economic development since 1820. Explorations in Economic History, 49 (1), 1−16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2011.09.002
Baten, J. (2015). Numeracy (Total). IISH Data Collection. V1. https://hdl.handle.net/10622/GEQKCG (Date of access: 11.06.2024).
Baten, J., & Blum, M., (2015). Height. IISH Data Collection. V1. https://hdl.handle.net/10622/IAEKLA (Date of access: 11.06.2024).
Baten, J., & Hippe, R. (2018). Geography, land inequality and regional numeracy in Europe in historical perspective. Journal of Economic Growth, 23 (1), 79–109. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-017-9151-1
Black, C. (1966). The Dynamics of Modernization: A Study in Comparative History. Harper & Row.
Bolt, J., & Van Zanden, J. L. (2020). Maddison project database, version 2020. Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy. A New 2020 Update. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020 (Date of access: 11.06.2024).
Borodkin, L. I. (2001). Income inequality during the Industrial Revolution. Is the hypothesis of the Kuznets curve universal? Rossiya i mir. Pamyati professora Valeriya Ivanovicha Bovykina [Russia and the world. In memoriam of Professor Valery Ivanovich Bovykin: Collection of articles] (рр. 331–355). Moscow: ROSSPEN. (In Russ.)
Borodkin, L. I., Valetov, T. Ya., Volodin, A. Yu., Garskova, I. M., Dmitrieva, A. V., Izmest’eva, T. F., Polevaya, A. N., Salomatina, S. A., & Anisimova, D. V. (2011). Dinamika ekonomicheskogo i sotsial’nogo razvitiya Rossii v XIX — nachale XX vv [Dynamics of economic and social development of Russia in the 19th and early 20th centuries]. http://www.hist.msu.ru/Dynamics/index.html (Date of access: 11.06.2024). (In Russ.)
Broadberry, S., & Guan, H., Li, D. D. (2021). China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Restatement.
The Journal of Economic History, 81 (3), 958−974. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050721000292
Broadberry, S., & Korchmina, E. (2024). Catching-up and falling behind: Russian economic growth, 1690s-1880s. The Journal of Economic History, 84 (4), 997–1028. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022050724000287
Cheremukhin, A., Golosov, M., Guriev, S., & Tsyvinski, A. (2017). The Industrialization and Economic Development of Russia through the Lens of a Neoclassical Growth Model. The Review of Economic Studies, 84 (2), 613–649. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdw026
Coale, A. J., & Treadway, R. (1986). Chapter 2. A Summary of the Changing Distribution of Overall Fertility, Marital Fertility, and the Proportion Married in the Provinces of Europe. In S. Watkins (Ed.), The Decline of Fertility in Europe (pp. 31−181). Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400886692-007
Davydov, M. A. (2016). Dvadtsat’ let do Velikoy voyny: Rossiyskaya modernizatsiya Vitte-Stolypina [Twenty years before the Great War: The Russian modernization by Witte-Stolypin] (2nd ed.). St. Petersburg: Aleteya, 1072. (In Russ.)
Didenko, D. V. (2015). Intellektualoemkaya ekonomika: Chelovecheskiy kapital v rossiyskom i mirovom sotsial’no-ekonomicheskom razvitii [Knowledge-intensive economy: Human capital in Russian and global socio-economic development]. St. Petersburg: Aleteya, 408. (In Russ.)
Didenko, D. V. (2019). State Strategic Planning Experience in the USSR in Theoretical and Empirical Studies. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz [Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast], 12 (5), 211–228. https://doi.org/10.15838/esc.2019.5.65.14 (In Russ.)
Didenko, D. V. (2021a). Dynamics and institutional sources of human capital accumulation in Russia’s regions (19th — early 20th centuries). Ekonomicheskaya istoriya: Ezhegodnik [Economic History:A Yearbook], 2020, 107–149. (In Russ.)
Didenko, D. V. (2021b). Spatial Inequality and Human Capital Formation in the Transition of European Russia to the ‘Modern’ Type of Economic Growth (Late 19th to Early 20th Centuries). Mir Rossii [Universe of Russia], 30 (3), 100−126. https://doi.org/10.17323/1811-038X-2021-30-3-100-126 (In Russ.)
Didenko, D. V. (2022). Spatial inequality in human capital formation in Russia’s main macroregions (late 19th — early 20th centuries). Vestnik Tomskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Ekonomika [Tomsk State University Journal of Economics], (57), 77−101. https://doi.org/10.17223/19988648/57/6 (In Russ.)
Didenko, D. V. (2024). Human capital formation in the processes of frontier modernizations in the late Russian Empire. Ural’skiy istoricheskiy vestnik [Ural Historical Journal], (1), 99−107. https://doi.org/10.30759/1728-9718-2024-1(82)-99-107 (In Russ.)
Didenko, D., Földvári, P., & Van Leeuwen, B. (2013). The spread of human capital in the former Soviet Union area in a comparative perspective: Exploring a new dataset. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 4 (2), 123−135. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2013.03.002
Eisenstadt, S. N. (1966). Modernization: Protest and Change. Prentice Hall.
Földvári, P., Van Leeuwen, B., & Didenko, D. (2015). Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008. Acta Oeconomica, 65 (1), 27–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/AOecon.65.2015.1.2
Galor, O. (2011). Unified Growth Theory. Princeton University Press.
Galor, O., Moav, O., & Vollrath, D. (2009). Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence. Review of Economic Studies, 76 (1), 143–179.
Gerschenkron, A. (1963). The early phases of industrialization in Russia: Afterthoughts and counterthoughts. In W.W. Rostow (Ed.), The Economics of Take-Off into Sustained Growth: Proceedings of a Conference held by the International Economic Association (pр. 151−169). Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Gerschenkron, A. (2015[1962, 1968]). Ekonomicheskaya otstalost’ v istoricheskoy perspektive [Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective]. Moscow: Delo Publ., 535. (In Russ.)
Gregory, P. (2003[1982, 1994]). Ekonomicheskiy rost Rossiyskoy imperii (konets XIX v. — nachalo XX v.): Novye podschety i otsenki [Economic growth of Russian empire (end of XIX-beginning of XX century): New estimates and calculations]. Moscow: ROSSPEN, 256. (In Russ.)
Hippe, R., & Baten, J. (2012). The Early Regional Development of Human Capital in Europe, 1790 — 1880. Scandinavian Economic History Review, 60 (3), 254−289. https://doi.org/10.1080/03585522.2012.727763
Johansson, K., & Lindgren, M. (2014). Life expectancy at birth. Version 7. The Gapminder Foundation. https://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd004/ (дата обращения: 11.06.2024).
Kahan, A. (1978). Capital Formation during the Period of Early Industrialization in Russia 1890–1913. In P. Mathias & M. M. Postan (Eds.), The Cambridge Economic History of Europe (Vol. VII. Part 2) (рр. 265−307). Cambridge University Press.
Kaser, M. (1974). Education in Tsarist and Soviet Development. In C. Abramsky (Ed.), Essays in Honour of E.H. Carr (pp. 229–254). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-01725-6_11
Kessler, H., & Markevich, A. (2020). Elektronnyy arkhiv Rossiyskoy istoricheskoy statistiki, XVIII — XXI vv. Versiya I [Electronic Repository of Russian Historical Statistics, 18th — 20th centuries. Version I]. http://ristat.org/ (Date of access: 11.06.2024). (In Russ.)
Kuboniwa, M., Shida, Y., & Tabata, S. (2019). Gross Domestic Products. In M. Kuboniwa,
Y. Nakamura, K. Kumo, Y. Shida (Eds.), Russian Economic Development Over Three Centuries: New Data and Inferences (pp. 335–419). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8429-5_11
Kumo, K. (2019). Population. In M. Kuboniwa, Y. Nakamura, K. Kumo, Y. Shida (Eds.), Russian Economic Development Over Three Centuries: New Data and Inferences (pp. 59−103). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8429-5_3
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic Growth and Income Inequality. The American Economic Review, 45 (1), 1−28.
Kuznets, S. (1963). Notes on the take-off. In W.W. Rostow (Ed.), The Economics of Take-Off into Sustained Growth. International Economic Association Series (pp. 22−43). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-00226-9_2
Kuznets, S. (1966). Modern Economic Growth: Rate, Structure, and Spread. Yale University Press.
Mal’tsev, A. A. (2012). Modernization Paradigm: Theoretical Approaches and Historic Experience. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya [World Economy and International Relations], (4), 105−108. https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2012-4-105-108 (In Russ.)
Markevich, A. (2019). A Regional Perspective on the Economic Development of the late Russian Empire, 90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2555273
Mironov, B. N. (2018). Rossiyskaya imperiya: ot traditsii k modernu [The Russian Empire: from Tradition to Modernity] (2nd ed., Vol. 1). St. Petersburg: Dmitrii Bulanin, 896. (In Russ.)
Mironov, B. N. (2022). Urban fertility in Russia in 1859–1913: on commencement of demographic transition. Naselenie i ekonomika [Population and Economics], 6 (2), 1−13. https://doi.org/10.3897/popecon.6.e83642 (In Russ.)
Nafziger, S., & Dennison, T. (2013). Living Standards in Nineteenth-Century Russia. The Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 43 (3), 397−441.
Natkhov, T. (2015). Colonization and development: The long-term effect of Russian settlement in the North Caucasus, 1890–2000s. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43 (1), 76−97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2014.09.003
Natkhov, T., & Vasilenok, N. (2021). Skilled immigrants and technology adoption: Evidence from the German settlements in the Russian empire. Explorations in Economic History, 81 (4), 101399. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2021.101399
Nefedov, S. A. (2011). Istoriya Rossii. Faktornyy analiz. T. II. Ot okonchaniya Smuty do Fevral’skoy revolyutsii [History of Russia. Factor analysis. Vol. I. From the end of the Troubles to the February Revolution]. Moscow: Territoriya budushchego Publ., 688. (In Russ.)
Nefedov, S., & Ellman, M. (2016). The Development of Living Standards in Russia before the First World War: An Examination of the Anthropometric Data. Revolutionary Russia, 29 (2), 149−168. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09546545.2016.1243618
Poberezhnikov, I. V. (2006). Perekhod ot traditsionnogo k industrial’nomu obshchestvu: teoretiko-metodologicheskie problemy modernizatsii [Transition from traditional to industrial society: theoretical and methodological problems of modernization]. Moscow: ROSSPEN, 239. (In Russ.)
Poberezhnikov, I. V. (2018). Frontier modernization in the East of the Russian Empire: Regional variations. Ural’skiy istoricheskiy vestnik [Ural Historical Journal], (4), 72−80. https://doi.org/10.30759/1728-9718-2018-4(61)-72-80 (In Russ.)
Pomeranz, K. (2000). The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy. Princeton University Press.
Rostow, W. W. (1961). The Stages of Economic Growth. Frederick Praeger Publishing House.
Turner, F. J. (1920). The Frontier in American History. Henry Holt and Company.
Vishnevsky, A. G. (2006). From what coast have we sailed away? Demograficheskaya modernizatsiya Rossiya: 1900–2000 [Demographic modernization in Russia: 1900–2000] (pp. 13–64). Moscow: New Publishing House. (In Russ.)
Wheatcroft, S. G. (1999). The Great Leap Upwards: Anthropometric data and indicators of crises and secular change in Soviet welfare levels, 1880–1960. Slavic Review, 58 (1), 27−60. https://doi.org/10.2307/2672986
Williamson, J. G. (1965). Regional inequality and the process of national development: A description of the patterns. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 13 (4, Part II), 1−84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/450136
Zakharov, S. V., Vishnevsky, A. G., & Sakevich, V. I. (2006). Modernization of fertility.
Demograficheskaya modernizatsiya Rossiya: 1900–2000 [Demographic modernization in Russia: 1900–2000] (рp. 149–254). Moscow, Russia: New Publishing Нouse. (In Russ.)
Zubkov, K. I. (2018). Frontier as a research paradigm. Ural’skiy istoricheskiy vestnik [Ural Historical Journal], (4), 63−71. https://doi.org/10.30759/1728-9718-2018-4(61)-63-71 (In Russ.)