DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2021.18-4.5
For citation:
Andreeva, E. L., Popova, A. S. & Ratner, A. V. (2021). Research Approaches to the Analysis of Exports’ Influence on Economic Growth. Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 18(4), 547-558. https://doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2021.18-4.5
Abstract:
The relevance of this study is determined by the key priority of socio-economic development in Russia — stimulation of non-resource non-energy exports. There is a vast body of research on the influence of exports on the economic growth of countries and their regions. In this study, we provide an overview of the theoretical and empirical approaches to this problem and build their typology. The approaches were compared by looking at the way they interpret the following contradiction: exports form a part of GDP and at the same time influence the type and way of production in the country, which can have a negative impact on GDP. We divided the selected approaches into groups depending on the way they evaluate the effects of exports: as unconditionally positive; as positive when combined with other factors; as neutral, or negative. We also described the mechanisms of exports’ influence, including ‘micro-factors’ and additional factors necessary for a positive effect or to justify its absence. Each of the approaches takes into account a certain factor (or component) of the macro-economic conditions or a certain characteristic of exports as a factor of economic growth. The existing approaches complement each other. The differences between them stem from the macro-economic context and characteristics of national exports. Our findings can be used to design the research methodology of further studies and they can also be of interest to government agencies designing export strategies and monitoring the effects of exports development.
Biryukov, P. A. (2018). Vliyanie kachestvennykh izmeneniy struktury eksporta tovarov na ekonomicheskiy rost v Rossii v 2014–2016 gg. [Impact оf Quality Changes in Merchandise Exports on the Russian Economic Growth in 2014–2016]. Mir novoy ekonomiki [The world of new economy], 12(1), 22–35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26794/2220-6469-2018-12-1-22-35. (In Russ.)
Krugman, P. (2006). Vozrastayushchaya otdacha, monopolisticheskaya konkurentsiya i mezhdunarodnaya torgovlya [Increasing return, monopolistic competition and international trade]. Vekhi ekonomicheskoy mysli [Milestones of Economic Thought], 6. Moscow, Russia: TEIS, 523–532. (In Russ.)
Tatarkin, A. & Andreeva, E. (2014). Formirovanie postindustrial’nogo social’nogo gosudarstva: vektor razvitiya chelovecheskogo potenciala [Post-industrial social state formation: the vector of human potential development]. Problemy teorii i praktiki upravleniya [International journal of Management theory and practice], 7, 24–31. (In Russ.)
Shirokova, E. Yu. (2020). Faktory jekonomicheskogo rosta regionov Severo-zapadnogo federal’nogo okruga [Factors of economic growth in the regions of the North-Western federal district]. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo jekonomicheskogo universiteta [Vestnik of Samara State University of Economics], 7(189), 40–51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.46554/1993-0453-2020-7-189-40-51. (In Russ.)
Abosedra, S., & Tang, C. F. (2019). Are exports a reliable source of economic growth in MENA countries? New evidence from the rolling Granger causality method. Empirical Economics, 56(3), 831–841. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1374-7.
Arkolakis, C., Costinot, A. & Rodriguez-Clare, A. (2012). New Trade Models, Same Old Gains. American Economic Review, 102(1), 94–130. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.1.94.
Benkovskis, K., Masso, J., Tkacevs, O. et al. (2020). Export and productivity in global value chains: comparative evidence from Latvia and Estonia. Review of World Economics, 156(3), 557–577. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-019-00371-0.
Bhagwati, J. N. (1978). Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from: https://econpapers.repec.org/bookchap/nbrnberbk/bhag78-1.htm (Date of access: 12.06.2021).
Buchinskaya, O. N., & Dyatel, E. P. (2019). Influence of high-technology exports and foreign charges for the use of intellectual property on economic growth. Journal of New Economy, 20(2), 114–126. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29141/2073-1019-2019-20-2-7.
Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2021). Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09291-8.
Fal’tsman, V. K. (2018). On Measurement of Economic Growth. Studies on Russian Economic Development, 29(1), 6–11. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/s1075700718010033.
Grech, A. G., & Rapa, N. (2019). A reassessment of external demand’s contribution to Malta’s economic growth. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), article 12, 1–13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-019-0144-4.
Grossman, G. & Helpman, E. (1993). Innovation and growth in the global economy. Cambridge (UK), Mass (USA): MIT Press, 375. Retrieved from: http://ecsocman.hse.ru/text/19211658/ (Date of access: 01.07.2021).
Gumata, N., & Ndou, E. (2019). Is Export-Led Growth a Necessary but Insufficient Condition for Job Creation in the Mining Sector? Does This Mean That There Is a Strong Case for Beneficiation? Accelerated Land Reform, Mining, Growth, Unemployment and Inequality in South Africa. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 241–260. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30884-1_12.
Kim, K. M. (2020). Characteristics of Korean Economic Growth. The Korean Developmental State. Singapore: Palgrave Macmillan, 51–74. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-3465-2_3.
Krueger, A. O. (1978). Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences. Cambridge, UK: National Bureau of economic research, 305. Retrieved from: https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/foreign-trade-regimes-and-economic-development-liberalization-attempts-and-consequences (Date of access: 01.07.2021).
Marcelin, I., & Nanivazo, M. (2019). Can Export Promotion Agencies Stem the Deindustrialisation in Sub-Saharan Africa? Governance for Structural Transformation in Africa. In A. Elhiraika, G. Ibrahim, W. Davis (Eds.). Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 189–220. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-03964-6.
Melitz, M. J. (2003). The impact of trade on intra‐industry reallocations and aggregate industry productivity. Econometrica, 71(6), 1695–1725. Retrieved from: https://web.stanford.edu/~klenow/Melitz.pdf (Date of access: 01.07.2021).
Moazzem, K. G. & Reza, M. M. (2020). Growth of Manufacturing Employment in the Changing Context of Trade and Trade-Related Policies. Quest for Inclusive Growth in Bangladesh. South Asia Economic and Policy Studies. In M. Muqtada (Eds.). Singapore: Springer, 137–173. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-7614-0_5.
Nouira, R., & Saafi, S. (2021). What Drives the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Growth? The Role of Human Capital, Institutional Quality, and Economic Development. Journal of the Knowledge Economy. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13132-021-00788-9.
Pal, D., & Chakraborty, C. (2020). Is There Any Relationship Between Output Growth and Export Growth in Indian Information Technology Industry After Liberalization? Role of IT- ITES in Economic Development of Asia. In Sikdar S., Das R. C., Bhattacharyya R. (Eds.). Singapore: Springer, 27–35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4206-0_3.
Rivera-Batiz, L., & Romer, P. (1990). Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth. NBER Working Papers, 3528. DOI: 10.3386/w3528.
Sen, S. (2010). International Trade Theory and Policy: A Review of the Literature. Working Paper, 635. NY: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, 24. Retrieved from: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_635.pdf (Date of access: 12.06.2021).
Singer, H. (1949). Post-war Price Relations between Under-developed and Industrialized Countries. New York, USA: United Nations department of economic affairs, 127. Retrieved from: https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/754540 (Date of access: 01.07.2021).
Subramaniam, V. (2019). Export-Oriented Manufacturing: A Viable Engine of Economic Growth and Labor Generation for Sri Lanka. Manufacturing and Jobs in South Asia. South Asia Economic and Policy Studies. In S. Chaturvedi, S. Saha (Eds.). Singapore: Springer, 171–195. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-8381-5_7.
Szczepaniak, M. (2019). Factors of Economic Growth in Ireland. Economic Miracles in the European Economies. In M. Osińska (Eds.), Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 79–97. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05606-3_5.
Thirlwall, A. P. (2000). Trade, trade liberalisation and economic growth: theory and evidence. Economic research papers, 63. Abidjan: African development bank. 30. Retrieved from: https://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/00157660-EN-ERP-63.PDF (Date of access: 12.06.2021).
Tzeremes, N. G. (2019). Technological change, technological catch-up and export orientation: evidence from Latin American Countries. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 52(1), 85–100. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11123-019-00566-5.
UNCTAD (2017). Evolution of the international trading system and its trends from a development perspective. Geneva, 21. Retrieved from: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/tdb64d5_en.pdf (Date of access: 12.06.2021).
Wagner, J. (2011). International trade and firm performance: a survey of empirical studies since 2006. IZA Discussion Paper, 5916. 72 p. Retrieved from: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1918234 (Date of access: 01.07.2021).
Young, A. (1991). Learning by Doing and the Dynamic Effects of International Trade. NBER Working Papers 3577. DOI: 10.3386/w3577.