2015, №4

Permanent income hypothesis, myopia and liquidity constraints in Russia

25.12.201513 октября, 2023Без комментариев


Private consumption has been one of the key drivers of the Russian economic growth for a long time. Recent weakening of the economic activity and recession of the current year underline the need of better understanding of the main factors, which affect the private consumption. Empirical research of the Russian consumption is usually based on the micro-data and does not include the crisis dynamics of the recent years. This work tests Friedman permanent income hypothesis on the aggregate data from January 2005 to May 2015 on the basis of instrumental variables approach. Different sensitivity of consumption to the expected growth and fall in real disposable income. The myopia and liquidity constraints are tested as the possible explanations of the PIH failure. The estimates show that current consumption is highly affected by the expected movements in real disposable income. The permanent income hypothesis is not supported by the data. Consumption was found to be more sensitive to the fall in disposable income rather than income increases, which is not explained by the myopia in consumption or the existence of liquidity constraints.

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Mariam O.  Mamedli Graduate student, HSE University, Research intern at the Scientific and Educational Laboratory of Macroeconomic Analysis (Moscow, Russian Federation;  e-mail: mmamedli@hse.ru).