Modelling of the Cause and Effect Relationship Between the Indicators of Railway Efficiency and Labour Productivity in the Russian Economy

Abstract:

The article analyzes the causal relationship between normalized economic indicators characterizing the efficiency of the railway and labour productivity in the Russian economy in 2000–2019. Two models were tested for this purpose. The first model investigates the relationship between the transport output as a dependent variable and the variables of cargo output and transport mobility of the population as independent variables. The second model deals with the relationship between the freight output of the railway network and labor productivity in the Russian economy. With the help of the tool vector model of error correction, it was found that among all the variables of the first model, there is a joint bilateral short — and long-term causal relationship. In the second model, this causal relationship is one-sided. At the same time, the change in the freight output of the railway network does not affect the change in labor productivity in the short- and long-term. On the contrary, the change in labor productivity affects the change in the load capacity of the network both in the short- and long-term. As a result, the equations for two models that determine the long-term equilibrium between the technical and economic indicators are estimated. The proposed approach creates additional instrumental and methodological opportunities for analyzing multi-factor causal relationships between the development of the transport network and the key indicators of a national economy. Such approach can increase the reliability and validity of assessments of the socio-economic efficiency of schemes and projects for the development of the railway network. The results can be used by public authorities, specialized research and engineering organizations, transport companies and local unions for strategic planning, designing of railway transport networks and similar.

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