Migration: a Factor or a Barrier to Inclusive Economic Growth in the Post-Soviet States

Abstract:

The main idea of the paper is a new view on migration and economic policy of the post-Soviet states from a position of inclusive economic growth of these states. It concerns their stability and diversification, the maximum restriction of illegal migration, switching of priorities in the external economic activity from trade in raw materials and energy resources to the scientific and technological cooperation and creation of common technological platforms. The paper presents the results of the econometric analysis of interrelationships between migration, diversification of the economy, quality of state institutions and other qualitative characteristics of economic growth prevailing in developing countries in the last two decades. The research has revealed the most important factors that promote the creation of conditions and prerequisites for the inclusive development of the economy. The analysis has shown that the most important factors are the quality of the state institutions, a technological development that creates conditions for investment into the human capital. Moreover, the research has determined threshold values by these factors as reference points for the transition of the CIS countries to the inclusive development of their economies. One more major result of the research is the fact that the large-scale and uncontrolled migration is the braking factor of sustainable development for all post-Soviet states. To overcome this process, it is necessary to create the large-scale joint integration, as well as knowledge- intensive and technological projects. They will allow not only reducing migration scales to Russia but also will promote a human capital increase in the CIS countries and create the knowledge-intensive jobs in labour markets of these countries.