2010 № 3

Methods of nonlinear dynamics in the analysis and forecasting of regional economic systems

Abstract:

With the help fractal approach within the limits of nonlinear dynamics the technique of the analysis and forecasting of time series behavior of economic systems of regional level is developed. If let length of an initial series go to infinity, and thus it will appear that a number is statistically fractal its prediction quite good (statistically) on the intervals of time essentially exceeding length of the number is possible. It is shown that the method of Hurst used in work can be applied with good accuracy even to rather small data arrays.

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Gennady P. Bystray — Dr. Sci. (Phys. and Math.), Professor, Senior Researcher, Center for Economic Security, Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e‑mail: Gennadyi.Bystrai@usu.ru).

Lev A. Korshunov — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Associate Professor, Rector, Altai State Technical University (Barnaul, Russian Federation; e‑mail: korhunov@altrrc.ru).

Ivan A. Lykov — Postgraduate Student, Ural State University (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e‑mail: john‑winner@yandex.ru).

Natalya L. Nikulina — Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Researcher, Center for Economic Security, Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e‑mail: nikulinanl@mail.ru).

Sergey A. Okhotnikov — Postgraduate Student, Ural State University (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e‑mail: sohotnikov@gmail.com).

JATS

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