2017, №4

Long-Term Cycles in the Development of the Russian Foreign Trade of Food Products

20.12.20172 августа, 2023Без комментариев


The article considers cyclical processes in the development of foreign food trade of Russia, the USSR, and the post-Soviet countries. The author describes various kinds of cycles in the agrarian production development and their connection to economic development. Long-term stages of the interaction of the Russia’s agrarian sector with the global food market have been distinguished using the cliometrics methods. The author also analyzed the changes in dynamics and structure of food export and import of the country for the extensive historical period. Three major interaction periods have been distinguished, being 40 to 50 years long. They begin from the declining phase of regular «long-term economic cycle» of Nikolay Kondratiev. In the social and economic plan, the interrelation between these periods and N. D. Kondratiev’s cycles is shown. These stages are characterized by a various parity of food export and import. The result of this study indicates the commencement of the new fourth stage of such interaction. The received results matter for the long-term forecasting of the development of the agrarian sector of the post-Soviet territory and the formation of the basic directions for the agricultural policy of Russia.

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Yuriy Fedorovich Chistyakov – PhD in Economics, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: uch1961@mail.ru).