Abstract:
This article introduces an approach to the modeling of N. Kondratiev cycles and technological structures. On the first stage Kondratieff cycles are detected by means of spectral analysis, on the second, the beginning of upward halfwaves is determined with the help of regression analysis, on the third — the contribution of technological structures in GDP is determined with the help of regression analysis. A simple piecewise linear functions of technological structures’ influence, that implement the hypothesis by V. Maevskiy, are introduced. Kondratieff cycles are identified for Western Europe and the USA. We identify structures and the evaluation of technological structures’ productivity in the U.S. economy during the 1881-2010 periods, and forecast the real GDP per capita in the U.S.
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