2022 (19), №1

Kondratiev Waves and Macroeconomics

For citation: 

Maevsky, V. I. (2022). Kondratiev Waves and Macroeconomics. AlterEconomics, 19(1), 166-184. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2022.19-1.10.


Contemporary mainstream macroeconomics tends to ignore the phenomenon of K-waves in dynamic economic modelling. The relevance of this article lies in the fact that it describes the conditions in which it is possible to implement K-waves in macro- and meso-economic modelling. The purpose of the study is to show that K-waves manifest themselves not in the dynamics of output (as macro-economists think) but in the behavior of technical, economic, and socio-economic indicators, reflecting the interaction of the two forces. The first force is the radical technological changes that accompany the transition from one technological mode to another and that trigger K-waves of technical and economic indicators, such as capital productivity. The second force is generated by the countercyclical response of the state and market to radical technological changes. The statistical analysis was used to identify the sinusoidal dynamics of the US capital intensity based on the data for 1946–2019. The research also applied a SMR model, which differs from orthodox macro-models in that it captures the effects of the coexistence of different generations of fixed capital. This model was used to calculate various variants of the interaction between the two above-mentioned forces. The calculations showed that the regulator has sufficiently powerful instruments to dampen the fluctuating dynamics of technical and economic indicators caused by shifts in technological modes at the GDP level. Thus, it is possible to use K-waves in macroanalysis. Moreover, such a possibility can be successfully implemented with the help of a heterodox model of switching reproduction mode. This fact signifies a noticeable advantage of heterodox economics, which recognizes K-waves, over mainstream macroeconomics.

Vladimir I. MAEVSKY,  Member of the RAS, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Professor, Institute of Economics of the RAS, 32, Nakhimovskiy prospect, Moscow, 117218, Russian Federation, e-mail: maev1941@bk.ru.  https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4169-825X