For citation:
Chichilimov, S. V. (2026). Structural Stagnation as a Strategic Global Challenge to the World Economy. AlterEconomics, 23(1), 66–84. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2026.23-1.5
Abstract:
This article examines the evolution of economic growth theory from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century. The study hypothesizes that the exhaustion of the dominant growth model results from the simultaneous interaction of three interrelated factors: rising geopolitical tensions, intensifying geoeconomic competition, and a shift in the dominant driver of economic growth. Together, these processes create the conditions for global structural stagnation. The relevance of the study lies in its additional analysis of the historical cyclicality of economic growth crises. The article aims to identify patterns in the emergence of structural stagnation through a comparative analysis of three key periods: the 1920s–1930s, the 1970s–1980s, and the 2020s. It seeks to examine how the economic theories of each period contributed to overcoming stagnation. The study employs a comparative historical approach supported by an empirical analysis of GDP growth components in the United States and Great Britain. The findings indicate that periods of structural stagnation in the global economy consistently coincide with the simultaneous influence of three factors: heightened geopolitical tensions, intensified geoeconomic competition, and the exhaustion of the dominant growth driver (capital accumulation, aggregate demand, or technological progress). Recovery from stagnation has historically been associated with the emergence of new theoretical paradigms that expand previous frameworks by incorporating knowledge, institutions, and human capital. The risk of a new phase of structural stagnation requires a transition toward a growth model based on sovereign knowledge capabilities and flexible institutional adaptation. Future research may focus on quantitative modeling of the relationship between institutional quality, human capital development, and resilience to geoeconomic shocks.
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