2013 № 3

Forecasting of migration movements and its economic effects within the framework of search and matching theory


The basic problems of current international labor migration are considered raising the need to formulate and solve the task of maintaining its efficiency. The economic theories of migration describing labor movement within the liberal development model are analyzed. Genesis of approaches to migratory modeling is carried out. A model for migratory movement and its economic effects forecasting within the framework of search and matching theory is presented. Employing the model on statistical data, the forecast trajectories of labor migration and its economic effects have been proposed for 2010-2016. Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy are given on the basis of the forecasts.

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Alexandra V. Vasilyeva – Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Junior Research Associate, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: sa840sha@mail.ru).