For citation:
Kotlyarova, S. N., Matushkina, N. A., & Mariev, O. S. (2024). Econometric Modeling of the Nonlinear Impact of Mortgage Lending on Housing Construction in Russian Regions. AlterEconomics, 21(4), 883–900. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2024.21-4.12
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the impact of the mortgage lending market on housing construction in Russian regions. The study uses panel data from 83 Russian regions for 2005–2021 (excluding regions added to the Russian Federation since 2014). The research question that the study seeks to address is as follows: do mortgage loans always stimulate housing construction in Russian regions? The main hypothesis is that the impact of mortgage lending on housing construction varies depending on its level. A second hypothesis explores the specific impact of mortgage lending in resource-dependent regions. The study is based on data from the Federal State Statistics Service, the Central Bank of Russia, and the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending. The primary method for analyzing the impact of mortgage lending was econometric modeling, including a random effects model, the Dynamic Threshold Panel model (accounting for dynamic relationships, threshold effects, and potential endogeneity), and the bias-corrected method of moments for linear dynamic panel data estimation. The analysis reveals a nonlinear effect of mortgage lending on housing construction. Specifically, before reaching a threshold value (62.6 thousand rubles per person), mortgage lending has a statistically significant positive effect on housing construction. After crossing this threshold, its impact becomes statistically significantly negative. The variable representing the region’s specialization in mineral extraction was found to be statistically insignificant. The results can inform the development and implementation of state strategies and national projects in housing and regional policy.
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