Grinin, L. E., Grinin, A. L. & Korotayev, A. V. (2022). Cybernetic Revolution, Sixth Long Kondratiev Cycle, and Global Aging. AlterEconomics, 19(1), 147-165.
The article aims to show the potential of the synthesis of Kondratiev’s concept of long cycles (waves), the theory of production (technological) revolutions, and the concept of the leading sectors and technological orders. Based on these theories, the article analyzes the contemporary cybernetic revolution that started in the 1950s and puts forward a prediction that the final phase of the cybernetic revolution will begin in the 2030s and that this final phase will merge with the sixth Kondratiev wave. The basis of the sixth technological order will be the complex of the leading technologies MANBRIC — medicine, additive technologies, nanotechnologies, robotics, IT, and cognitive technologies. Most of the technologies within this complex will be self-governing systems. One more important factor considered in the analysis is the global population ageing, which will have a significant impact on the development of technologies in the final phase of the cybernetic revolution and the sixth technological order. Global aging will spur the advancement of medical science and related fields and make medicine the most important integrating component of the emergent MANBRIC complex. It can be predicted that the upcoming final phase of the cybernetic revolution will be accompanied by the disappearance of K-waves and slowing down of the technological progress.