DOI:
10.31063/2073-6517/2019.16-4.4
For citation:
Krivenko, N. V., & Epaneshnikova, D. S. (2019). Justification of Possibilities for Effective Import Substitution in Terms of Ensuring Economic Security. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoj Teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 16(4), 640-653
Abstract:
Under the sanction regime imposed by the USA, EU and a number of other countries, the problem of domestic economy development is extremely important for the Russian economy. This article considers import substitution not as a simple substitution of imported products for domestic products, but taking into account the coverage of all components of the production process for the purpose of ensuring the domestic market from a position of economic security. Research objectives included an analysis of existing methods for the assessment of import substitution, as well as the development of an approach to substantiate the possibilities of effective Russian import substitution. The concept of import substitution and available methodological approaches to this problem were studied using the methods of statistical, structural, comparative, macro- and meso-analysis. The state of import substitution at the macro- and meso-levels was analysed. The example of the agribusiness sector showed its strong dependence on the export supply of raw materials, machinery and equipment. In the Ural Federal District, a high degree of depreciation of fixed assets and insignificant state investments were revealed providing no effective import substitution and ensuring economic security. The authors proposed a concept of effective import substitution, a classification of import substitution by the degree of state support, as well as a model of the impact of import substitution on the spheres of economic security. Methodological approaches to investigating possibilities of effective import substitution were developed. By considering industries and agriculture in terms of open systems, optimal structural ratios of domestic and imported components at all stages of production cycles, as well as between export products and products for the domestic market, were determined.
Abeljan, A. S., Ivanova, N. E., & Rudik, E. V. (2014). Mekhanizmy importozameshcheniya v politike modernizatsii rossi- yskoy ekonomiki [Mechanisms of import substitution policy of modernization of the Russian economy: practical tools for implementation]. Transportnoe delo Rossii [Transport business in Russia], 4, 114–116. (In Russ.)
Animitsa, E. G., Animitsa, P. E., & Glumov, A. A. (2015). Importozameshhenie v promyshlennom proizvodstve regiona: konceptual’no-teoreticheskie i prikladnye aspekty [Import Substitution in Regional Industrial Production: Theoretical and Practical Aspects]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Region], 3, 160–172. DOI 10.17059/2015–3-14. (In Russ.)
Anishchenko, A. N. (2015). Analiz potentsiala importozameshcheniya v prodovol’stvennoy sfere regiona [Analysis of the potential of import substitution in the food sector of the region]. Ekonomika i sotsium [Economy and society], 5(18), 54–62. (In Russ.)
Bodrunov, S. D. (2015). Teoriya i praktika importozameshcheniya: uroki i problemy [Theory and practice of import substitution: lessons and problems: monograph]. Saint-Petersburg, Russia: INIR im. S.Ju. Vitte, 171. (In Russ.)
Bondarchuk, N. V. (2015). Razrabotka metodicheskikh podkhodov k otsenke effektivnosti innovatsionnykh proektov. Napravlennykh na importozameshchenie produktsii v vysokotekhnologichnykh otraslyakh promyshlennosti v ramkakh zadaniya po proektu № 3637 [Development of methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of innovative pro- jects aimed at import substitution of products in high-tech industries as part of project assignment No. 3637]. Materialyly III mezhd. nauch. Kongressa «Predprinimatel’stvo i biznes v usloviyakh ekonomicheskoy nestabil’nosti» [Materials of the III International scientific congress «Entrepreneurship and business in the conditions of economic instability»], Moscow, 109–111. (In Russ.)
Borovkova, V. A., & Tikhanovich, M. O. (2017). Razrabotka metodiki ocenki jeffektivnosti realizacii regional’noj strategii importozameshhenija [Development of a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of implementation of the regional im- port-substitution strategy]. Finansovaya analitika: problemy i resheniya [Financial Analytics: Science and Experience], 7(10), 722–737. DOI: 10.24891/fa.10.7.722. (In Russ.)
Borodin, K. G. (2018). Ocenka vlijanija prodovol’stvennogo jembargo i jekonomicheskih sankcij na tovarnye rynki (na primere rynkov mjasa) [Assessment of the impact of food embargo and economic sanctions on commodity markets (for example, meat markets)]. Ekonomika i matematicheskie metody [Economics and Mathematical Methods], 54(4), 41–59. (In Russ.)
Vasil’eva, L. V. (2017). Voprosy razrabotki metodiki ocenki potenciala Importozameshhenija [Issues of developing a methodology for assessing the potential of import Substitution] Innovacionnoe razvitie Rossijskoj ekonomiki. Materialy X mezhdunarodnoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii: v pyati tomah [Innovative development of the Russian economy. Proceedings of the X international scientific and practical conference: in five volumes], 338–342. (In Russ.)
Vasil’eva, L. V. (2016). Podhody k ocenke potenciala importozameshhenija [Approaches to assessing the potential of import substitution]. Approbation [Aprobaciya], 11, 98–101. (In Russ.)
Vyakina, I. V. (2017). Obnovlenie osnovnogo kapitala v real’nom sektore: potencial importozameshhenija i ekonom- icheskoj bezopasnosti [Renewal of fixed capital in the real sector: potential for import substitution and economic secu- rity]. Ekonomicheskij analiz: teoriya i praktika [Economic analysis: theory and practice], 16(5), 800–815. (In Russ.)
Golubeckaya, N. P., Ushakova, Е. V., & Chirkova, T. V. (2018). Vozmozhnye scenarii innovacionnogo razvitija region- al’nyh predprinimatel’skih struktur v uslovijah strukturnoj perestrojki rossijskoj ekonomiki [Possible scenarios of innovative development of regional business structures in the context of structural restructuring of the Russian economy]. Ekonomika i upravlenie [Economy and management], 156(10), 67–74. (In Russ.)
Dovbij, I. P. (2018). Promyshlennost’ Rossii: investicionno-innovacionnoe razvitie i ekonomicheskaya bezopasnost’ [Russian industry: investment and innovation development and economic security]. Chelyabinsk, Russia: Izdatel’skij centr YuUrGU, 240. (In Russ.)
Dunin, I. M., Sharkaev, V. I., & Sharkaeva, G. A. (2015). Razvitie myasnogo skotovodstva v Rossiyskoy Federacii [Development of beef cattle breeding in the Russian Federation] Еzhegodnik po plemennoy rabote v myasnom skotovodstve v hozyaystvah Rossiyskyj Federacii [Yearbook on breeding work in meat cattle breeding in the farms of the Russian Federation], Moscow, Russia: VNIIplem, 1–10, (In Russ.)
Еrshov, A. YU. (2015). Formirovanie importozameshhajushhej strategii [Formation of import-substitution strat- egy]. Fundamental’nye issledovaniya [Fundamental research], 8(2), 374–379. (In Russ.)
Zamaraeva, B. A., & Marshova, T. N. (2015). Proizvodstvennye moshhnosti rossijskoj promyshlennosti: potencial im- portozameshhenija i jekonomicheskogo rosta [Production capacity of Russian industry: potential for import substitution and economic growth]. Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic issues], 6, 5–24, (In Russ.)
Zvereva, I. V. (2016). Metodika ocenki ekonomicheskogo potenciala regiona v usloviyah sankciy [Methodology for as- sessing the economic potential of the region under sanctions]. Vestnik altayskoy akademii ekonomiki i prava [Bulletin of the Altai academy of Economics and Law], 2(44), 131–135. (In Russ.)
Kadochnikov, P. A. (2006). Analiz importozameshhenija v Rossii posle krizisa 1998 g. [Analysis of import substitution in Russia after the 1998 crisis]. Moscow, Russia: In-t jekonomiki perehodnogo perioda, 139. (In Russ.)
Kopein, V. V., & Filimonova Е. A. (2015). Importozameshhenie kak novy element v sisteme prodovol’stvennoy i ekonom- icheskoy bezopasnosti [Import substitution as the new element in the system of food and economic security]. Rossiyskoe predprinimatel’stvo [Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship], 18(6), 2947–2956. DOI: 10.18334/rp.16.18.1942. (In Russ.)
Kotovanov, M. V. (2018). Sushhnost’ i dolgosrochnye posledstvija importozameshhenija [Substance and Long-Term Effects of Import Substitution]. Ekonomika i upravlenie [Economics and management], 9(106), 60–68. (In Russ.)
Lindert, P. H. (1992). Ekonomika mirohozjajstvennyh svyazey. In O. V. Ivanova (Eds.) [Economics of world economic relations: translated from English]. Moscow, Russia: Progress-Univers, 515. (In Russ.)
Makarov, A. N. (2011). Importozameshhenie kak instrument industrializacii ekonomiki regiona: innovacionny aspekt (na primere Nizhegorodskoy oblasti) [Import substitution as an instrument of industrialization of the region’s economy: an innovative aspect (on the example of the Nizhny Novgorod region)]. Innovacii [Innovation], 5(151), 36–40. (In Russ.)
Matantsev, A. N. (2003). 600 sposobov prodvizhenija torgovoj marki [600 ways of brand promotion]. Moscow, Russia: Delo i servis, 352. (In Russ.)
Matveeva, L. G., Chernova, O. A., & Klimuk, V. V. (2015). Ocenka effektivnosti politiki importozameshheniya v promys- hlennosti: metodicheskiy instrumentariy [Evaluation of the effectiveness of import substitution policies in industry: methodological tools]. Vestnik Tihookeanskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta [Bulletin of the Pacific State Economic University], 3, 3–13. (In Russ.)
Manturov, D. V., Nikitin, G. S., & Os’makov, V. S. (2016). Planirovanie importozameshheniya v Rossijskoy promyshlennosti: praktika rossiyskogo gosudarstvennogo upravleniya [The Russian government approach to import substitution planning in industry.] Voprosy ekonomiki [Economic issues], 9, 40–49. DOI 10.32609/0042–8736–2016–9-40–49. (In Russ.)
Novickiy, N. A. (2014). Izmerenie effektivnosti importozameshheniya v agropromyshlennom komplekse na osnove inno- vacionno- investicionnoy emkosti [Measuring the efficiency of import substitution in the agro-industrial complex on the ba- sis of innovation and investment capacity]. Vestnik Federal’nogo gosudarstvennogo obrazovatel’nogo uchrezhdeniya vysshego professional’nogo obrazovaniya “Moskovskij gosudarstvenny agroinzhenerny universitet im. V. P. Goryachkina” [Vestnik of Federal State Educational Establishment of Higher Professional Education “Moscow State Agroengineering University named after V. P. Goryachkin], 2, 95–98. (In Russ.)
Rumjanceva, E. G. (1997). Novaya ekonomicheskaya enciklopediya [The new economic encyclopedia], Moscow, Russia: Infra-M., 632. (In Russ.)
Semenov, A. M. (2014). Politika importozameshhenija v razvitii farmacevticheskoj promyshlennosti Rossii [Import substitution policy in the development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry]. (Candidate’s dissertation). Moscow, Russia, 30. (In Russ.)
Semykin, V. A., Safronov, V. V., & Terehov, V. P. (2014). Importozameshhenie kak effektivnyj instrument optimal’nogo razvitija rynochnoj jekonomiki [Import substitution as an effective tool for optimal development of the market economy]. Vestnik Kurskoj gosudarstvennoj sel’skohozjajstvennoj akademii [Bulletin of the Kursk State Agricultural Academy], 7, 2–7. (In Russ.)
Starovojtova, O. V. (2011). Importozameshhenie v uslovijah maloj otkrytosti jekonomiki [Import substitution in conditions of low openness of the economy]. (Candidate’s dissertation). Minsk, Belarus, 23. (In Russ.)
Somov, V. L., & Markov, V. A. (2016). Statisticheskii analiz perspektiv importozameshcheniya I konkurentnykh preimushchestv real’nogo sektora ekonomiki Saratovskoi oblasti [Statistical analysis of import substitution prospects and competitive advantages in the real sector of the economy of the Saratov region]. Aktual’nye problemy i perspektivy razvitiya gosudarstvennoi statistiki v sovremennykh usloviyakh [Urgent problems and prospects of development of state statistics in the modern world], 3, 65–71. (In Russ.)
Kuklin, A., Chereshnev, N., & Krivenko, N. (Eds.). (2018). Scenarnoe modelirovanie jekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti regionov RF [Scenario modeling of economic security of Russian regions]. Еkaterinburg, Russia: Institut ekonomiki UrO RAN, 223. (In Russ.)
Tatarkin, A. I., & Kuklin, A. A. (2012). Izmeneniye paradigmy issledovaniy ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti regiona [Changing Paradigm of Region’s Economic Security Research]. Ekonomika regiona [Economy of Region], 2, 25–39. (In Russ.)
Trjujel, Zh.-L., & Pashhenko, Ja. N. (2016). Importozameshhenie i novaja industrializacija: vozmozhen li tandem? [Import substitution and the new industrialization: Is any tandem possible?]. Ekonomicheskoe vozrozhdenie Rossii [Economic Revival of Russia], 1(47), 66–72. (In Russ.)
Fal’tsman, V. K. (2015). Forsirovanie importozameshhenija v novoj geopoliticheskoj obstanovke [The speeding up of import substitution in the new geopolitical situation]. Problemy prognozirovaniya [Studies on Russian Economic Development], 11(48), 22–32. (In Russ.)
Fedos’kina, L. A. (2016). Ocenka potenciala importozameshcheniya regiona: teoriya i praktika na primere respubliki Mordovii [Assessment of the region’s import substitution capacity: evidence from the republic of Mordovia]. Regional’naya ekonomika:teoriya i praktika [Regional Economics: Theory and Practice], 3, 130–144. (In Russ.)
Filimonenko, I. V., Vasil’eva, Z. A., & Lihacheva, T. P. (2015). Metodologija vyjavlenija potrebnostej jekonomiki regiona v produkcii importozameshhenija [Method for identification of the regional economy’s needs in import substitution products]. Rossijskoe predprinimatel’stvo [Russian Journal of Entrepreneurship], 21(16), 3659–3674. DOI: 10.18334/rp.16.21.2071. (In Russ.)
Cheneri, X., & Karter, N. (1972). Vnutrennie i vneshnie aspekty planov i processa jekonomicheskogo razvitija [Eternal and external aspects of plans and economical development process]. Konferentsiya po dolgosrochnomu planirovaniyu i prognozirovaniyu [Conference on long-term planning and forecasting], Moscow, 77–100. (In Russ.)
Sharkaeva, G. A., & Sharkaev, V. I. (2016). Rezul’taty ispol’zovanija importnogo krupnogo rogatogo skota mjasnogo napravlenija produktivnosti v Rossijskoj Federacii [Results of the use of imported cattle meat productivity in the Russian Federation], Molochnoe i myasnoe skotovodstvo [Dairy and meat cattle breeding], 1, 11–13. (In Russ.)
Chenery, H. & Strout, A. (1966). Foreign Assistance and Economic Development. American Economic Review, 56, 679– 733.