For citation:
Zakharov, S. V. (2026). The Long-Term Transformation of Russia’s Fertility Pattern and Demographic Policy in 2006–2024. AlterEconomics, 23(2), 429–447. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2026.23-2.10
Abstract:
This article examines changes in the quantum and structural characteristics of period and cohort fertility in Russia in the context of pro-natalist demographic policy pursued since 2006. The study assesses the significance of recent decades’ shifts for total fertility, the age profile of mothers, and their distribution by number of children born. The analysis draws on Rosstat data and applies increment-decrement age- and birth-order-specific period and cohort fertility tables. The author also proposes methods for quantifying the effects of demographic policy over 2006–2024. The findings show that: (1) Russian generational fertility has continued to evolve in line with patterns of the Second Demographic Transition in quantum, maternal age profile, and parity distribution, bringing Russia closer to other developed countries; (2) despite fluctuations in 2007–2024, including those attributable to pro-natalist policy, the long-term fertility trend has not undergone fundamental change; (3) heterogeneity in the distribution of women by age at childbearing and by number of children born has increased significantly; (4) the estimated policy effect amounts to approximately 0.1 births per woman for 1980s cohorts, representing around 6–7 % of total births registered in Russia over 2007–2024. It is recommended that further investigation of long-term reproductive trends and the impact of socio-demographic policy should be pursued through cohort-based monitoring, as cohort indicators are less sensitive to tempo distortions in the timing of demographic events.
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