DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2025.22-4.2
For citation:
Makarova, M. N. & Pyshmintseva, O. A. (2025). Entropic Approach to Social Risk Assessment and Forecasting. AlterEconomics, 22(4), 588–607. https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2025.22-4.2
Abstract:
Amid high socio-economic uncertainty, an essential task is to improve tools for assessing and predicting social risks. Traditional statistical methods often fail to fully capture the complex nature and subjective perception of risks, making the development of new predictive approaches essential for proactive social policy and the mitigation of social tension. The aim of this research is to develop and test an entropy-based approach to assessing and forecasting social risks at the regional level, quantifying the level of uncertainty and disorder in a regional social system. An adapted social entropy indicator was calculated using data from a sociological survey in Sverdlovsk region. The indicator, based on Shannon’s information entropy, combines the probability, intensity, and significance of various risks across gender and age groups. Additionally, forecasts of entropy dynamics up to 2050 were produced using demographic projections with the cohort-component method. The results indicate that social risk entropy in the region is significantly high, reflecting notable instability in the regional social system. The most significant risks were identified as health loss, environmental degradation, and loss of control over life. Gender asymmetry was observed: men exhibit sharper fluctuations in entropy over their life cycle than women. Forecasts suggest a slight increase in overall entropy by 2050, with a shift in risk focus toward population aging. Among men, a two-peaked distribution emerges, with entropy peaks at ages 25–39 and 60–64. These findings can inform the development of regional strategies and targeted social policies.
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