Abstract:
Author worked out an econometric model that links the major macroeconomic variables and uses it to make a mid-term forecast of investment in fixed capital and other macroeconomic variables. She analyzes different forecast variants with decrease of export prices, and aggressive monetary policy, and others. The forecasting shows that export prices have a strong influence on investment. Their drop leads to severe economic slump and deflation. Economically active population also has a serious influence on economic growth and its decline in nearest years demands another strategy of development for Russia. Active monetary policy supports growth and investment though increases inflation.
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