2020 (17), №3

Assessment of Regional Economic Security: Reality vs. Pseudo-Security

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31063/2073-6517/2020.17-3.7

For citation: 

Kuklin, A. A., & Okhotnikov, S. A. (2020). Assessment of Regional Economic Security: Reality vs. Pseudo-Security. Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 17 (3), 600-613.

Abstract:

The aim of this research is to study a new phenomenon of pseudosecurity. This phenomenon emerges when the economic security indicator runs counter its projections in relation to another indicator, that is, pseudosecurity is usually linked to a qualitative or quantitative influence of a certain indicator on the overall state of the socio-economic system. This phenomenon manifests itself most strongly in the face of threats, at the initial stage of crises or at the post-crisis stage, which makes accurate forecasting difficult. Therefore, the more precise method of calculations in assessing economic security is required as economic security is becoming increasingly important in analyzing the subject of our research. Economic security is understood as a territory’s ability to maintain a relatively stable level of development and resist the effects of a recession. Thus, the system of economic security should act as an ‘airbag’ and at the same time help detect any latent changes and respond to them. For this purpose, the author proposes a toolkit of express diagnostics for assessment of regional economic security, highlighting the elements of pseudo-security. This approach is relatively easy to use as it doesn’t require to calculate dozens of indicators and is quite effective in determining the role of economic security regional socio-economic development. This methodology is based on the use of a cross-correlation function and eight indicators of regional economic security. These indicators can be used for express-diagnostics and for forecasting socio-economic trends within a region. The proposed methodology was tested on the data of individual regions of the Ural Federal District.

Aleksandr Anatol’evich Kuklin — Doctor of Economics, Chief Researcher, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of RAS (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: alexkuklin49@mail.ru).

Sergey Aleksandrovich Okhotnikov — Teacher of Mathematics and Physics, Oxford Language Centre (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: sohotnikov@gmail.com).