Justification of Possibilities for Effective Import Substitution in Terms of Ensuring Economic Security

Abstract:

Under the sanction regime imposed by the USA, EU and a number of other countries, the problem of domestic economy development is extremely important for the Russian economy. This article considers import substitution not as a simple substitution of imported products for domestic products, but taking into account the coverage of all components of the production process for the purpose of ensuring the domestic market from a position of economic security. Research objectives included an analysis of existing methods for the assessment of import substitution, as well as the development of an approach to substantiate the possibilities of effective Russian import substitution. The concept of import substitution and available methodological approaches to this problem were studied using the methods of statistical, structural, comparative, macro- and meso-analysis. The state of import substitution at the macro- and meso-levels was analysed. The example of the agribusiness sector showed its strong dependence on the export supply of raw materials, machinery and equipment. In the Ural Federal District, a high degree of depreciation of fixed assets and insignificant state investments were revealed providing no effective import substitution and ensuring economic security. The authors proposed a concept of effective import substitution, a classification of import substitution by the degree of state support, as well as a model of the impact of import substitution on the spheres of economic security. Methodological approaches to investigating possibilities of effective import substitution were developed. By considering industries and agriculture in terms of open systems, optimal structural ratios of domestic and imported components at all stages of production cycles, as well as between export products and products for the domestic market, were determined.

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