2019 (16), №4

Methodology for a Scenario Model of the Reproduction of Investment Potential in Institutional Sectors



For citation: 

Naumov, I. V. (2019). Methodology for a Scenario Model of the Reproduction of Investment Potential in Institutional Sectors. Zhurnal ekonomicheskoj Teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 16(4), 730-745


This work was aimed at describing the methodological features of scenario modelling for the reproduction of the investment potential of institutional sectors (financial and non-financial corporations, government and households, foreign institutions) in regions. It is hypothesised that the scenario design of any socio-economic system and, in particular, the model of investment potential reproduction of institutional sectors can be represented as a system process of designing a set of forecast scenarios with the stages of scenario analysis, modelling, experimentation, forecasting and planning. These stages were previously considered in scientific literature as independent research processes frequently bearing the same functional content. The combination of these stages into a single process of scenario design allows a deeper understanding of their essence and a functional differentiation of the tasks carried out therein. Such an approach ensures the consistency and integrity of the development of forecast scenarios and eliminates the ambiguity in the understanding of the essence of its stages. Conventional approaches largely consider typical procedures for analysing trends and patterns in development of the studied socio-economic processes and model their dependence on various factors of the internal and external environment to develop basic scenarios (pessimistic, optimistic and inertial). Along with the aforementioned, the presented methodological approach additionally allows investigation of inter-territorial relations in the observed processes, modelling of the consequences of implemented scenarios, testing of the developed scenario mode for the formation of many alternative scenarios of changes in the future. Moreover, such an approach provides for monitoring the dynamics of changes in key variables used in the model, assessing the probability of transition to the implementation of other scenarios, adjusting the designed scenarios, as well as searching for the main vector of strategic development of the regional system, the most preferred scenario for its implementation and related mechanisms.

Ilya Viktorovich Naumov — Doctor in Economics, Departmental Head, Laboratory for Spatial Territorial Development Modelling, Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, Ural State Mining University; Ural State University of Economics (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: ilia_naumov@list.ru).