Macro-Audit of the “National Economic Course” in Russia

Abstract:

There is a conception in political discourse of Russia, National economic course, the essential element of which is sharp reduction in the key rate of the Bank of Russia to the level of the developed Western countries. Th is concept is endorsed by the highest spheres of the government, but its’ economic consequences have not adequately digitalized yet. Th e article conducts a macro-audit of this concept, which supposes formation of the monetary policy parameters; calculation of these parameters for the current monetary regime and in an implementation of the National economic course; the impact of macro parameters changes on economic growth; the assessment of timeliness and realism of the proposed concept. Th e article describes six key monetary parameters, which will undergo changes during the realization, in attempt to adopt the values, specific to the developed countries in the world. Th is approach has allowed to evaluate the current (retrospective) and long-term (after the implementation of the National economic course) monetary efficiency index. Th e calculations have shown that main increases will be by increasing the monetary freedom index. It will allow the Bank of Russia to switch the policy more focused on the promotion of domestic business. Th e econometric calculations have shown that one-off  effect of the monetary reform can be GDP growth rate of 14 %.

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