2019 (16), №2

Population Dynamics of Russia in the Context of the Theory of Demographic Transition



For citation: 

Zubarev, N. Yu. (2019). Population Dynamics of Russia in the Context of the Theory of Demographic Transition. Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 16(2), 198-206


The article is devoted to the study of patterns of population change in Russia from the standpoint of the theory of the demographic transition. The author of the article analyzes the main approaches to the description of the causes and consequences of the demographic transition, systematizes the signs of individual stages of the demographic transition, and also gives their brief description. The article also contains a statistical analysis of the dynamics of the main demographic indicators in Russia from 1965 to 2016. Based on the study, the author concludes that Russia is at the fourth stage of the demographic transition, with features of the transition to the fifth stage. In addition, the author argues the point that the fifth stage scenario is determined by the current mortality model in the country. Russia has a high mortality rate due to circulatory diseases, neoplasms and external causes, especially among the middle-aged population. These features of the mortality model predetermine the vector of depopulation for upcoming periods.

Nikolay Yur’evich Zubarev — Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economic Theory and Global Economy, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Education “Perm State Agro-Technological University named after Academician D. N. Pryanishnikov” (Perm, Russian Federation; e-mail: nu_zubarev@mail.ru).