2020 (17), №3

Impact of World Oil Prices on the Ruble Exchange Rate and Inflation in the Russian Economy



For citation: 

Ilyashenko, V. V. (2020). Impact of World Oil Prices on the Ruble Exchange Rate and Inflation in the Russian Economy. Zhurnal Economicheskoj Teorii [Russian Journal of Economic Theory], 17 (3), 519-529.


The article discusses the relationship between world oil prices, the ruble exchange rate and inflation in the Russian economy. This relationship is of particular importance due to Russian exports’ heavy dependence on the world market of mineral products. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the dependence between world oil prices and the ruble exchange rate and to show their impact on the level of inflation. The study relies on the methods of analysis and synthesis, systemic approach, grouping method, a combination of historical and logical approaches. The research draws on statistics of Rosstat and the Bank of Russia. Various points of view on the impact that the changing ruble exchange rate has on various economic processes are considered. The author analyzes the state of the Russian currency market in the post-Soviet period, in particular the dynamics of the nominal ruble exchange rate and its purchasing power parity. The research also touches upon the relationship between the ruble exchange rate and the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia. In conclusion, recommendations are made regarding the improvement of the current Russian monetary policy. These research findings can be used in economic and monetary policy-making of the federal authorities and the Central Bank.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Ilyashenko — Doctor of Economics, Professor, Department of Economic Theory and Corporate Economics, Ural State University of Economics (Ekaterinburg, Russian Federation; e-mail: k-45409@planet-a.ru).