Verbal Interventions of the Bank of Russia and the Interest Rate Structure

Abstract:

This paper investigates verbal interventions of the Bank of Russia from 2014 to 2017, as well as the relationship between verbal interventions and interest rates in the Russian economy. All statements made by official representatives of the Bank of Russia, as well as those by the press service and reports of Bank of Russia departments, were considered as the verbal interventions of the Bank of Russia. The values of the zero coupon yield curve of the Moscow Exchange were taken into account as interest rates in the economy of the Russian Federation. The results of the study showed the necessity of taking into account the instability of model parameters and study models for individual time segments in case of considering the relationship between the structure of interest rates in the economy, other macroeconomic indicators and verbal interventions. Optimal time segments in terms of improving the quality of data presentation were obtained using novel research instruments. The results of assessment of various models, including ARCH and GARCH, demonstrated that the information policy of the Bank of Russia has a significant impact both on short-, medium- and long-term interest rates. Moreover, the relationship between the statements of Bank of Russia representatives and interest rates depended both on the subject and on the tone of the statements. This work supplements the existing economic literature by studying the influence of the Regulator not only on the current economic dynamics, but also on the long-term expectations of economic agents. In addition, the problems of the effectiveness of the information policy of the Bank of Russia were discussed, and a number of proposals to increase its effectiveness were considered.

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